Editorial: Time to talk about consolidation

Shawn Petretti touched the third rail of North Fork politics — and he’s still standing.

The Mattituck-Cutchogue School District superintendent did something few local leaders would dare. He said the dreaded C-word – “consolidation” – out loud. It wasn’t a proposal, or a concrete plan. He simply acknowledged the enrollment crisis he’s seen firsthand before demographic and financial realities force our hand.

He was right to do it. And it’s time North Fork administrators in Southold and Greenport, blinded by school pride, stop burying their heads in the fertile soil.

The numbers tell a story they can’t ignore forever. Since 2012, Southold Town school districts have shed more than 700 students. Mattituck-Cutchogue alone has lost a third of its enrollment, falling to 981 students from 1,388. Last year’s kindergarten class was 62 kids. Southold’s was 30.

These aren’t just statistics. They’re empty desks and stretched-thin programs — the slow erosion of the well-rounded education their parents and grandparents received. How much longer can Southold Town schools offer AP biology or music programs, or the dozens of other electives, if there is no critical mass?

And there are no reinforcements coming to stem the outgoing tide. The shrinking enrollment is driven by forces entirely beyond our control — forces that are only accelerating.

The median home price on the North Fork just hit $999,000, pricing out young families who would fill those kindergarten classrooms. The people paying those prices are mostly second-home buyers from the city or Nassau County, according to several local real estate agents.

Meanwhile, the people who have made this community function — the teachers, firefighters, small business owners and maritime workers — can no longer afford to live here. Their kids are enrolling elsewhere, where their parents can actually buy a house.

At the same time, people are having fewer children, and they’re having them later in life. This isn’t just a North Fork problem. It’s a demographic reality reshaping communities across the country.

The result is a downward enrollment spiral that will only get worse unless housing costs dramatically reverse course — and no one seriously expects that to happen.

Here’s what we’re facing: Shriveling enrollment means less state aid tied to headcounts. It means spreading resources thinner across buildings and staff built for many more students. At some point, the math simply stops working.

Southampton and Tuckahoe are already moving forward with a $110,000 feasibility study for a potential merger, with a community vote possible in fall 2027. Mr. Petretti has monitored the phenomenon that has ravaged rural upstate districts for years as those regions hollowed out and consolidated. The question isn’t whether consolidation will eventually happen on the North Fork. The question is whether we plan for it thoughtfully — or have it thrust upon us in a crisis.

To be clear: No one is advocating for immediate consolidation. No district is actively pursuing it. Mr. Petretti raised it only as something worth discussing in the context of looming state aid changes that could gut rural school budgets.

But that’s precisely the point. The various school boards should start having this conversation now, while we still have options — not later, when we’re out of time and money.

A feasibility study could cost roughly $100,000, split among districts and reimbursed by the state. It would examine programs, staffing, tax rates, facilities and transportation. It would give communities real data to work with, not speculation and fear.

If a study shows consolidation makes sense, the state offers significant incentives — up to 40% of foundation aid over 14 years. For Mattituck alone, that could mean $27 million. That’s real money — money that could preserve programs, ease tax burdens and strengthen what we’re able to offer students.

If a study shows consolidation doesn’t make sense, fine. At least we’d know. Greenport’s student body is actually growing, while Southold’s has leveled off after suffering an enrollment decline similar to Mattituck’s over the past decade.

The schools already share services — NJROTC, AP classes, sports teams, even an assistant superintendent for business in the case of Greenport and Southold. I’ve met with all the North Fork superintendents — Mr. Petretti, Greenport’s Beth Doyle, Anthony Mauro at Southold and Justin Cobis at Oysterponds — and their only concern is their students. They have shown they can work together. The question is whether they’re willing to consider working together more formally.

Mr. Petretti took the risk of sounding the alarm. Now it’s time for school boards, community leaders and residents to follow his lead — not with a rush to merge, but with a willingness to study the question honestly and plan for a future we can already see coming.

The third rail only shocks you if you’re not prepared for it. Let’s be prepared.